For the SKU or family the ads push.
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Honest door-to-warehouse ETA. 0 means arriving now.
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How the score works
The pressure score is a weighted sum of five components, and only the total is clamped to 0 to 100: stock cover (up to 40) + restock physics (up to 22) + budget concentration (up to 18) + margin and CX (up to 12) + demand shape (up to 12). Some factors subtract: a high margin takes 2 off, substitutes in stock take 4 off, weak creative and a quiet window take 2 off each, a retargeting-heavy setup takes 3 off. A factor only appears in "Why this call" if it actually moved the score.
Worked example. 80 sellable units and 96 sold in 14 days give a sell rate of 6.86 units a day and 11.7 days of cover, which scores 12 for stock. Restock lands in 21 days with no confirmed inbound units, so the ETA is 9.3 days past cover: restock scores 22. The SKU holds 35% of ad budget: 14. Medium margin and low CX risk: 0. No substitutes adds 7; mixed creative, a normal window and a mixed funnel add nothing: demand shape scores 7. Total 12 + 22 + 14 + 0 + 7 = 55, which lands in the 48 to 71 band: throttle and reallocate. Tick "No restock planned" and restock stays at its maximum of 22, so the score cannot fall below the case where a PO is booked.
Model notes: the five-step method
- Measure cover. Units on hand ÷ daily sell rate. Under 4 days scores 40, under 10 scores 28, under 21 scores 12, otherwise 4.
- Check restock physics. No restock planned scores 22. If inbound units are confirmed, we check how much cover is left when they land (max(0, cover minus ETA)): none left scores 20, under 5 days scores 12, otherwise 4. With no inbound units, an ETA more than 7 days past cover scores 22, slightly past scores 14, inside cover scores 3.
- Weigh budget concentration. 50% or more scores 18, 30% scores 14, 15% scores 8, less scores 3.
- Adjust for economics and demand shape. Tight margin +8, high margin −2, raised CX risk +6, high CX risk +10. No substitutes +7, substitutes −4, winner creative +5 (protect it on in-stock SKUs rather than burning it into OOS), fatigue +3, weak −2, peak +6, quiet −2, cold prospecting +3, retargeting −3.
- Act by band and set a review date. 72+: hard throttle or pause prospecting. 48 to 71: throttle and reallocate. 28 to 47: hold with kill criteria. Under 28: keep running with weekly stock checks. The memo button writes the kill criteria and a review date 7 days out for you.
- Post-PO cover = max(0, cover minus ETA) + inbound units ÷ sell rate. An ETA of 0 with inbound units means they are arriving now.
- Stress tests: +20% sell rate, restock +7 days, inbound counted.
Pair with days of cover · stock-aware ads · pausing Shopify ads when out of stock · Shopify ads on low stock.
FAQ
What is the pressure score?
A 0 to 100 number that says how urgent it is to cut paid demand on a SKU. It adds five weighted components: stock cover (up to 40), restock physics (up to 22), budget concentration (up to 18), margin and CX (up to 12) and demand shape (up to 12). Some factors subtract. Only the total is clamped to 0 to 100.
What are the weights?
Stock cover: under 4 days scores 40, under 10 scores 28, under 21 scores 12, otherwise 4. Restock: no restock planned scores 22, selling out before inbound lands scores 20, an ETA more than 7 days past cover scores 22, slightly past cover scores 14, inside cover scores 3. Budget share: 50 percent or more scores 18, 30 scores 14, 15 scores 8, otherwise 3. Tight margin adds 8, raised CX risk adds 6, high CX risk adds 10, high margin subtracts 2. No substitutes adds 7, substitutes subtract 4, a winner creative adds 5, fatigue adds 3, weak creative subtracts 2, peak season adds 6, quiet season subtracts 2, cold prospecting adds 3, retargeting subtracts 3.
When is pausing the right call?
When the score is 72 or above: you cannot fulfil what the ads would sell, no restock is close, and this SKU carries a large share of budget. Pause or hard throttle cold prospecting first. Keep light retargeting only if you can still ship what it sells.
What should I do instead of pausing?
Between 48 and 71, throttle and reallocate: cut this SKU's budget share, move spend to in-stock heroes or substitutes, keep winner creatives alive on SKUs with cover, and write kill criteria with a review date. Between 28 and 47, hold with a strict watch band. Under 28, keep running and re-run the tool whenever units or ETA change.